發(fā)布時(shí)間：2021-09-09 10:14:29
Broad prospect
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the average growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society was 5.82%, the average growth rate of installed power generation capacity in the whole country was 8.05%, and the average growth rate of electricity generation was 6.01%. The country's power supply structure has also been further optimized, with the proportion of new energy power generation capacity in the total installed capacity rising by 2.69 percent on average. Among them, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation increased from 230 million kW in 2015 to 530 million kW in 2020, and the proportion of new energy generation in total power generation increased by 1.11 percent on average.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, 238 gigawatts of new solar and wind power capacity will be installed globally in 2020. Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that global installed solar and wind power capacity will increase 17-fold and six-fold, respectively, by 2050, with 2.728 gigawatts of new solar and wind power installed worldwide. The average annual growth rate of newly installed solar and wind power capacity is 8.16 percent.
In 2020, China's newly installed wind and solar power capacity was 120 million kW, bringing the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power to 534 million kW. The total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will grow at an average annual growth rate of at least 8.12 percent, according to the target of reaching more than 1.2 billion kW by 2030. There is no doubt that the development of the new energy power industry has broad prospects.
Realistic dilemma
The author conducted field research on the sub-companies (sub-companies) of many large central enterprises in the power industry in Beijing, Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and other regions, and conducted in-depth interviews with the main principals of these companies, the project managers engaged in the investment, development and construction of photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy power, as well as specialized personnel in various positions, and learned that in the actual construction process of new energy power projects, Multiple dilemmas remain:
First, the efficiency of resource allocation is not high enough. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average growth rate of the installed capacity of new energy power generation in the total installed capacity is higher than the average growth rate of the new energy power generation in the total power generation. Some new energy power projects that have been built and put into operation have low utilization rate, and the phenomenon of wind and light abandonment still exists. Some projects failed to be completed and put into operation as scheduled, or even stopped in the middle of construction, due to reasons such as poor capital turnover, technical bottlenecks and long approval cycles. This not only resulted in a waste of indicators, but also caused losses in resources input by local governments and enterprises.
Second, the business environment is not convenient enough. New energy power projects involve a wide range of units and complicated examination and approval procedures. Especially for projects that cover a large area and are distributed in the periphery of urban areas, close cooperation is needed from county, town, village and other grass-roots units. However, most local grass-roots units lack relevant assessment content and standards, and the tax generating capacity of new energy power projects is low, and the enthusiasm of local governments to participate in the investment and construction is not high, which not only delays the project investment and construction process, but also increases the cost of coordination between enterprises and local governments.
Third, the market trading mechanism is not sound. Although there are trading modes in the national electricity market, such as bilateral negotiation trading, centralized trading, rolling matching trading and listing trading, there are still few modes that meet the characteristics of new energy electricity trading. Among them, the "new energy + energy storage" mode of power lacks grid connection guarantee, resulting in frequent consumption problems of new energy power. The online trading price mechanism is the core of the trading mechanism of the new energy power market. In 2020, wind power and photovoltaic have basically realized the parity Internet access, but most local governments have not clearly issued the relevant price policies to promote the smooth transition of wind power generation to the parity Internet access.
Finally, supporting policies are not complete enough. At present, the state implements the tax policy of "three exemptions and three halves" for the investment and construction of new energy and power projects. In the process of implementation, due to the long promised tax return cycle, inflexible tax method and other problems, as well as the increasing shortage of available land resources, some governments are more inclined to the projects of intensive land use when approving land, and slow the approval of the investment and construction of new energy and power projects. In addition, due to the large investment scale, long recovery cycle and uneven project quality, new energy power projects still have problems such as narrow financing channels, difficult financing, expensive financing and slow financing.
